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Two days remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia starts on Friday morning.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to score runs, isn't it?

Batters on each side of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has centred around the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to batting in Australia, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from English cricket describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and vice-versa.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average under 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – England should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Uncapped Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's record holds up well compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have played at 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team setting a target.

England often overthink day-night matches, when data indicate the pink ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

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