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The direst potential impacts of the climate crisis for the UK have been detailed by scientists, including a blistering 4C rise in temperatures to a 2-metre increase in sea levels. Another scenario envisions a decline of 6C in temperature following the shutdown of crucial Atlantic Ocean currents, which would massively disrupt food production and power requirements.

Possible Outcomes, Not Forecasts

These consequences, some of which are connected to irreversible climate shifts, are considered as low probability but credible. The researchers stated that these models filled a gap in forecasting that had rendered the UK unprepared for catastrophic possibilities.

"The worst-case scenarios we have detailed aren’t predictions, but they are credible," said the professor who led the study. "The nation has been planning without the methods to plan for extreme possibilities. We've now given planners what they need to get ready for future conditions they pray never occur, but can’t afford to ignore."

A Spectrum of Harsh Climate Possibilities

Another collection of severe models sets out the potential extent of extreme weather between now and the year 2100. These suggest that temperatures could soar in certain periods by up to 6C higher than average, while rainfall could be triple typical amounts.

The chance of the extreme scenarios happening could not be calculated due to a lack of certainty about what measures will be implemented to combat climate change and how the climate system will react. This research was compared to security threat evaluations or scenario planning for financial systems.

Critical Possibility Details

• 4C Temperature Rise: Worldwide averages soaring past 4C by 2100 could happen if emissions cuts collapses or if strong feedback loops including the Amazon rainforest dying release its enormous store of carbon. This would cause intense and enduring heat domes and water shortages hitting the UK in summer.
• AMOC Shutdown: A major ocean current, the AMOC, is slowing down and losing stability due to ocean warming. A complete failure starting around 2030 would lead to a 6C cooling in the UK. "Agriculture would be severely challenged and water supplies would be drastically changed," said the lead researcher.
• Sudden Ocean Inundation: A surge of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could take place if polar ice in the Arctic and Antarctic disintegrate quickly, submerging seaside communities. Differing from the other scenarios, this risk is already recognized by planners.
• Aerosol Effect: Global averages could also be increased by about 0.75C if industrial aerosols is rapidly cleaned up. This unexpected result occurs because tiny specks from industrial activity block solar radiation from warming the ground.

Preparing for the Worst

These dire projections could be utilized in planning the development of critical national infrastructure, including expanded cities, energy plants and water management networks. Awareness of these climate risks could also speed the drive to slash carbon pollution.

The analysis created the worst-case scenarios using a mix of real-world events, climate models and established principles. The scenarios exclude potential global problems like the global food shortages and increased conflict.

The project was initiated as part of a government’s risk assessment framework. Independent analyses have warned that not enough attention was being allocated to catastrophic yet improbable risks.

An independent advisory body has recommended that the UK must "become resilient to moderate heating" and assess the threats for four degrees. Past policy documents have been criticised as being "very weak" by environmental groups.

A government spokesperson noted: "The climate emergency is at the core of this government’s agenda, both building resilience and transitioning to a clean energy superpower. It is vital that the UK is prepared for the consequences."